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OVER POPULATION IN PAKISTAN AND ITS IMPACT ON DEVELOPMENT

BY: ZAR WALI ZAHID

Pakistan, with a population of 153.45 million in mid 2005 is the 6th most populated country in the world. Since 1901, the population of the area now constituting Pakistan has increased nine-fold. Annual growth rates have risen from 1 per cent the first three decades of the country to around 2 per cent in the next three decades after peaking over 3 per cent in the 1960s and 1970s and then below 3 per cent in the 1990s. In absolute numbers; almost 111 million persons have been added to the population in the last 44 years (1961-2005).
The population density had increased to 164 persons per square kilometer in 1998 from 42.5 persons per square kilometer in 1951 which was almost a four times increase. Movement of population to urban areas, as a result, had increased from 6 million in 1951 to 43 millions in 1998. In 1998, almost one-third of population of Pakistan was residing in urban areas imposing competing demands on available infrastructure like housing, transportation, electricity, water, sewerage, sanitation, etc.
The fast growth of population is also putting pressure on agricultural land, there were 4.1 million agricultural farms in 1980. Due to fragmentation their number had risen to 6.2 million in 2000. The effect of population growth is even worse on small agricultural land holidays. There were 2.1 million farms under three acres or 51 per cent of the total in 1980. Their number had increased to 4.8 million or 72 per cent of the total land holidays in 2000. This fragmentation is one of the effects of fast population growth. These units are no longer economically viable and are incapable of supporting even families of the farmers. This has encouraged migration to cities and other greener pastures abroad.
Pakistan’s rapid population growth is one of the main impediments in way of government efforts for achieving the overall National Development Goals and Sustained Socio-Economic growth. It is imperative to stabilize population so that burden on existing infrastructure is reduced and the reward of economic growth is not diluted by rapid increase in population.
The recent improvement in the micro economic indicator of Pakistan and its trick down effect would not be shared by a larger segment of population due to high population growth. A high level of poverty is an indication that even the process of urbanization has not helped; rather it has added a new dimension to economic and social challenges. Urban population was doubled between 1951 and 1998.

At 1.9 per cent Population Growth Rate (PGR) annually, Pakistan’s population will be doubled in 37 years, unless and until there is a well-coordinated combination of measures to reduce fertility rate; and the population plans are fully implemented and sustained, population growth will continue to be a major hurdle for development. An urgent step in this direction would be to bring population to the centre stage of development. Developing countries of the world, by their experience have learnt that rapid population growth is a hurdle in way of economic development. Fast population growth surpasses the production of goods and supply of the amenities required to raise standards of living of the people and thus perpetuating poverty and deprivation. This realization makes population control and integral part of national development plans around the developing world. A control over rapid population growth will be necessary to narrow and ultimately eliminate – the gap between population and economic resources.

Pakistan will be facing serious shortages in the years to come if the present rate of natural population increase persists. Just to maintain the current per capita levels services in various sectors, the nation in 2010 will need 3,057 additional health facilities, 4.6 million housing units and 8.6 million employment opportunities over those in the year 2000, besides essentials like food, water, transport etc. in which Pakistan is already deficient. A large part of the fruits of development are consumed by backlog of shortages and the additional population of about 2.9 million per year, curtailing resources for development by that volume, advancement social change check high fertility. As such enhancement of education, health, housing facilities and the resolve to maintain population control measures can pull the nations out of the maelstrom of high population growth, which has been slowing down the pace of social and economic development.